Low prevalence COVID-19 test

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The chances of true pos are:

For 100000 tests, each with probability = 0.007, on average there will be 700 true pos.

Probability

  • 0.007000
  • As a percentage

  • 0.7000%
  • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 7 in 1000
  • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 1700 : 12
  • Representative example

    For true pos

  • 100000 chances for true pos
  • Observed true pos: 682 = 0.682% (expected average: 700 = 0.700%)
  • What are the Chances of That? - The Book

    Five reasons that we find it hard to think about uncertainty. To be published by Oxford University Press in 2021.

    Click here to learn more about it.

    http://itabn.tumblr.com/post/138631317782/this-website