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High prevalence COVID-19 test

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The chances of true pos are:

For 10000 tests, each with probability = 0.114, on average there will be 1140 true pos.

Probability

  • 0.114000

    • As a percentage

  • 11.4000%

    • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 4 in 35

    • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 70 : 9

    • Representative example

    For true pos

  • 10000 chances for true pos
  • Observed true pos: 1136 = 11.360% (expected average: 1140 = 11.400%)

    • What are the Chances of That? - The Book

    Five reasons that we find it hard to think about uncertainty. To be published by Oxford University Press in 2021.

    Click here to learn more about it.

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