being killed on a sortie in the Battle of Britain

The chances of fatalities are:

For multiple sorties, each with probability 3%, on average there will be sorties until fatalities.

On average, with up to 30 repeated sorties, there will be 59.9 pilots with fatalities.

Probability

  • 0.030000
  • As a percentage

  • 3.0000%
  • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 3 in 100
  • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 225 : 7
  • Representative example

    For fatalities

  • 100 pilots x 30 sorties max
  • Observed fatalities: 59
  • For pilots (columns)
  • Summary for pilots: {'min': 0, 'max': 1, 'mean': 0.59, 'median': 1}
  • Counts: How many fatalities for each of the pilots? [Click to show]
  • [1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1]
  • Distribution: How many pilots for each different number of fatalities? [Click to show]
  • 41 with 0 fatalities; 59 with 1 fatalities;
    For sorties (rows)
  • Summary for sorties: {'min': 0, 'max': 6, 'mean': 1.9666666666666666, 'median': 2}
  • Counts: How many fatalities for each of the sorties? [Click to show]
  • [2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 3, 1, 4, 0, 2, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 4, 2, 3, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 1]
  • Distribution: How many sorties for each different number of fatalities? [Click to show]
  • 5 with 0 fatalities; 6 with 1 fatalities; 10 with 2 fatalities; 5 with 3 fatalities; 3 with 4 fatalities; 1 with 6 fatalities;

    What are the Chances of That? - The Book

    Five reasons that we find it hard to think about uncertainty. To be published by Oxford University Press in 2021.

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