"[the good of counting is that] it brings every thing to a certainty, which before floated in the mind indefinitely." Samuel Johnson

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a clover having four leaves

The chances of four-leaf clovers are:

For 20000 plants, each with probability = 1 in 10000, on average there will be 2 four-leaf clovers.

Probability

  • 0.000100

    • As a percentage

  • 0.0100%

    • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 0 in 1

    • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 10000 : 1

    • Representative example

    For four-leaf clovers

  • 20000 chances for four-leaf clovers
  • Observed four-leaf clovers: 0 = 0.000% (expected average: 2 = 0.010%)

    • What are the Chances of That? - The Book

    Five reasons that we find it hard to think about uncertainty. To be published by Oxford University Press in 2021.

    Click here to learn more about it.

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