a bomber being shot down on bombing operation in WWII

The chances of losses are:

For multiple operations, each with probability 8325 in 364514, on average there will be operations until losses.

On average, with up to 30 repeated operations, there will be 50.0 bombers with losses.

Probability

  • 0.022839
  • As a percentage

  • 2.2839%
  • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 4 in 175
  • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 300 : 7
  • Representative example

    For losses

  • 100 bombers x 30 operations max
  • Observed losses: 46
  • For bombers (columns)
  • Summary for bombers: {'min': 0, 'max': 1, 'mean': 0.46, 'median': 0}
  • Counts: How many losses for each of the bombers? [Click to show]
  • [0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0]
  • Distribution: How many bombers for each different number of losses? [Click to show]
  • 54 with 0 losses; 46 with 1 losses;
    For operations (rows)
  • Summary for operations: {'min': 0, 'max': 4, 'mean': 1.5333333333333334, 'median': 1}
  • Counts: How many losses for each of the operations? [Click to show]
  • [1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 3, 0, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 4]
  • Distribution: How many operations for each different number of losses? [Click to show]
  • 5 with 0 losses; 12 with 1 losses; 8 with 2 losses; 2 with 3 losses; 3 with 4 losses;

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