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4.2 various outcomes in threat screening

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The chances of real threats detected are:

For 10000 suspects, each with probability = 0.00009, on average there will be 0.9 real threats detected.

Probability

  • 0.000090

    • As a percentage

  • 0.0090%

    • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 0 in 1

    • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 100000 : 9

    • Representative example

    For real threats detected

  • 10000 chances for real threats detected
  • Observed real threats detected: 1 = 0.010% (expected average: 0.9 = 0.009%)

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