"Mathematics is a wonderful, mad subject, full of imagination, fantasy, and creativity that is not limited by the petty details of the physical world, but only by the strength of our inner light." Gregory Chaitin

Home - Chances - Play - Examples - Numbers

News - The Uncertain World - Love of Numbers - Big Numbers - Landmarks

4.1 various outcomes in medical screening

?

?

?

?

?

The chances of true pos are:

For 10000 patients, each with probability = 0.009, on average there will be 90 true pos.

Probability

  • 0.009000

    • As a percentage

  • 0.9000%

    • As a rounded-off proportion

  • 9 in 1000

    • As approximate fair betting odds

  • 1100 : 10

    • Representative example

    For true pos

  • 10000 chances for true pos
  • Observed true pos: 89 = 0.890% (expected average: 90 = 0.900%)

    • What are the Chances of That? - The Book

    Five reasons that we find it hard to think about uncertainty. To be published by Oxford University Press in 2021.

    Click here to learn more about it.

    http://itabn.tumblr.com/post/138631317782/this-website